NATIONAL Food Reserve Agency managers are said to be upbeat as to increased grain storage capacity due to investments by the government, while also praising reforms introduced in that direction as also boosting storage capacity.

There is obviously plenty that the government has done to that end, boosting grain supply security and enabling higher export levels within the sub-region.

Yet all is not as rosy as it appears and, even if there is a visible surplus despite market gaps, cutting back on market autonomy to centralised grain trade could slow down the rise in agro-sector surpluses, as state buyers always cut back on market prices.

Storage capacity has tripled from early 2021 levels and is still rising, while also the agency was enabled to purchase 400,000 tonnes above what they were doing earlier.

However, the rest is somewhat out of focus. The agency says that this additional purchasing has ensured that farmers receive better prices for their produce, whereas what happened earlier was stopping traders from buying straight from villages.

Officials say that farmers are assured of better prices in comparison with what the agency was offering earlier, as traders offer higher prices.

What the agency is not saying is that policy makers don’t have the confidence required in market forces, hurrying up to remove free trade in grain the moment anyone is heard to complain that maize flour prices are rising, claiming that it is traders who raise prices.

This risks providing the legitimacy to ban traders from directly accessing the gain and the wider public trusts that they are being protected that way as urban grain prices remain low.

Such a situation could hinder the possibility of enhanced capital flows into agriculture and additional produce arises from higher rains, bigger acreage by peasants and subsidised fertiliser, while those all for commercial agriculture despair as prices are dampened.

Auxiliary remarks that NFRA has also sold grain to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and raised exports to neighbouring countries hides the forest – that all this could have been done by traders,  resulting in the development of an increasingly vibrant grain market.

But just as commercial growing of grain diminishes, particularly for maize, the capacity for quasi-governmental agency WFP to sell the maize to needy countries as well as refugee camps is changing direction.

The demand is for regional parties to feed their own refugees, mean ing that it is the likes of EAC and SADC that will ultimately be looking after refugees if aid cuts and higher military spending trends are maintained.

The vision NFRA beams to the public and expects that it will do for the long term is anchored in the past, as it ought not to be taking control of all the maize, rice, wheat, etc., but to turn into a specialised agency for emergency stocks, including surpluses for refugees.

The idea could mean engaging in public works as in all relief food supplies, even as some activists may argue that labour should not be part of relief work.

The market can fend for itself and, when there is higher output due to market needs, the agency can hire its storage space for additional revenues.