SCIENTISTS have said that human-induced climate change increased the severity of the 2021-2022 drought in the Horn of Africa.

In a study undertaken by scientists from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), the United Nations University, and other institutions, climate change was found to have intensified prolonged droughts, exacerbating food insecurity, water scarcity, and livelihood disruption in the region.

Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist at the KMD and lead researcher of the study, said at a forum in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi that the impacts of the 2021-2022 drought were far-reaching and affected many sectors, including health, food security, livelihoods, displacement, electricity infrastructure, security, and governance.

Scientists, in their analysis, observed that anthropogenic influence on the combined effects of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures made the drought exceptional, leading to major crop and pasture losses and water shortages.

In addition, they found a decline in rainfall during the March-May long rainy season and an upward trend during the October-November-December short rainy season, which they attribute to climate change.

To understand the role of human-induced climate change on dry spells, scientists analysed rainfall trends and the combined effect of rainfall deficit with high temperatures in the southern Horn of Africa, covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.

The study reveals that from October 2020 to early 2023, the eastern Africa region experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in four decades. The prolonged dry spell led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving about 4.3 million people in need of humanitarian aid.

Scientists noted that disaster management and response functions, international aid, livelihood type, socio-economic status, state fragility, and the length of the drought played a key role in determining where and for whom impacts were greatest.